Nearly half say their faith
guides their political views
FAIRFIELD,
Conn., June 14 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- According to the Sacred
Heart University Polling Institute, a nation-wide telephone survey
of 958 Americans reveals what role religion may play in the 2008
elections.
Over half of
all respondents with an opinion, 60.7%, believe a presidential
candidate should be a religious person while 39.3% do not.
Nearly half of
all respondents, 48.4%, suggested their own religious faith always
or sometimes guides their views toward politics. An equal percent,
48.4%, said their own faith seldom or never guides their views and
3.2% were unsure.
When choosing
a presidential candidate, 27.8% consider a candidate's specific
religious affiliation relevant to their decisions. Another 66.0% do
not and 6.3% are unsure.
"While 27.8%
is a minority," according to Jerry C. Lindsley, director of the
Sacred Heart University Polling Institute, "it represents nearly 34
million people, based on the 2004 voter turnout, who will consider
the particular religious denomination of such candidates as former
Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney - a Mormon."
Dr. June-Ann
Greeley, assistant professor of Religious Studies and director of
SHU's Center for Catholic Thought, Ethics and Culture, said that
religion may have a positive or negative impact when considering
throwing support behind a candidate. Although 27.8% of respondents
said they consider a candidate's religious affiliation relevant,
Greeley said it could either mean that they would vote for a
candidate because of the candidate's religious affiliation or they
would not support a candidate on that basis.
Greeley said
one way or the other, the poll shows that for most Americans,
religion is important in selecting a candidate. "We think we can
understand something meaningful about a person, a politician, if we
have a sense of his/her religious beliefs because, clearly,
religious belief is still esteemed by a majority of Americans," she
said.
The poll also
shows Democrats emerging as the party of choice in the November 2008
presidential election.
Despite how
survey respondents planned to vote themselves, 60.3% expect the
Democrats to regain the White House while just 14.5% believe
Republicans would retain the White House. One quarter, 25.2%, are
undecided.
"When you
remove undecided voters from the data, 80.6% believed the Democrats
will win the White House - a perception that will be hard to
overcome," according to Lindsley.
"Even
Republicans, by a margin of 42.6% to 29.4%, believe Democrats will
regain the White House," he added.
In other
results, former Tennessee U.S. Senator Fred Thompson has jumped into
the top tier of preferred presidential candidates among
Republican-affiliated voters. Among Republicans, the four leading
preferred candidates emerging from the pack are former New York City
Mayor Rudy Giuliani (38.6%), former Massachusetts Governor Mitt
Romney (19.3%), U.S. Senator John McCain (17.9%) and former U.S.
Senator Fred Thompson (9.0%).
Some Democrats
also preferred an unannounced, undeclared candidate. Former Vice
President Al Gore received 5.4% backing, placing him fourth among
the top four Democratic contenders. The first three included U.S.
Senator Hillary Clinton (54.0%), U.S. Senator Barack Obama (20.5%),
and former U.S. Senator John Edwards (12.1%).
More
respondents, 27.5%, plan to vote all or mostly Democratic in 2008
than those saying they plan to vote all or mostly Republican
(20.4%). Others, 39.0%, expect to divide their vote evenly between
the two parties.
"Just 17.5% of
those under 30 years of age say they will vote all or mostly
Republican - another indication that America's youth are trending
toward the Democratic Party," according to Lindsley.
By nearly a
three-to-one margin, Republicans are considered more likely to
maintain a strong military (63.8%) than Democrats (20.5%) and more
likely to protect the United States against terror attacks (51.5% to
24.9%).
However,
Democrats are considered more likely to ...
-- Maintain a strong economy -
49.2% to 34.0%
-- Reduce the U.S. budget deficit
- 55.5% to 23.6%
-- Provide health care to the
uninsured - 76.7% to 11.7% -- End the military effort in Iraq -
61.9% to 27.3%
-- Support higher education -
54.4% to 32.4%
"If there is a
glimmer of hope for Republicans," according to Lindsley, "it is that
America remains a mostly conservative nation by a nearly two-to-one
margin - 35.9% (mostly and very conservative) and 21.1% (mostly and
very liberal) with another 37.2% describing themselves as
moderates."
According to
Dr. Gary Rose, professor and chair of SHU's Government and Politics
Department, the vote may be influenced by perception about the
issues closer to Election Day. "If national security is the
principal concern of the electorate, the Republicans will have the
advantage. If domestic issues are primary, then the Democratic Party
will carry the day. That's the traditional way American politics has
played out over the years," Rose said.
On issues, the
escalating price of gasoline was second only to the Iraq War (51.2%)
for nearly a quarter, 23.2%, of respondents when asked which issues
they are most concerned about. Rounding out the top 10 issues are
the cost of and access to health care (12.3%), immigration
policy/illegal aliens (10.5%), poor economy (8.4%), high taxes
(5.6%), environment/pollution (4.5%), terrorism (4.1%), global
warming (3.7%) and violence/crime (3.3%).
The poll shows
that President George W. Bush continues to lose support. Just under
one-third, 32.6%, held a very or somewhat favorable opinion of the
job President Bush is doing. This favorability rating is the lowest
SHU has recorded. This latest SHU poll figure is down from 51.0% in
February 2006 and 45.1% in October 2005.
The Sacred
Heart University Polling Institute completed 958 interviews with
residents nationwide between May 14-26, 2007. The sample was
generated proportional to population contribution in all 50 states.
Statistically, a sample of 958 completed telephone interviews
represents a margin for error of +/-3.0% at a 95% confidence level.
