(6/29/2005)

Americans More Positive About Iraq War

Poll reveals president got his message across

Those who watched President Bush's speech Tuesday night now hold a more positive outlook on the war than they did before the address, even though the speech itself was not rated as positively as others Bush has given. Compared with their responses before the speech, people who tuned in are now more likely to say the United States and its allies are winning the Iraq war, that Bush has a clear plan for handling the war, and that the United States should keep troops in Iraq until the situation there gets better. The audience was apparently rather small and composed largely of Bush supporters -- 50% of those who tuned in were Republicans, a much higher proportion than exists in the general population but similar to what Gallup has found in polling following other Bush speeches.

Overall, the sample of 323 speech watchers rated Bush's speech in positive terms -- with 46% describing their reaction as "very positive" and an additional 28% "somewhat positive." That is well below average when compared with other major speeches Bush has given, which have averaged a 60% very positive rating in similar flash polls. That includes a 67% very positive rating for the famous "Mission Accomplished" speech he gave aboard an aircraft carrier in May 2003, in which he declared the major fighting phase of the Iraq war to be over.

The speech was viewed by an audience composed disproportionately of Bush supporters, a pattern Gallup has observed in other major Bush speeches. Fifty percent of the viewing audience identified themselves as Republicans, 27% as independents, and 23% as Democrats.

While Bush may largely have been "preaching to the choir," the viewing audience did come out of the speech with a slightly more positive outlook on the war than it had before the speech.

Before the address, 44% of those who watched the speech said the United States and its allies were winning the war, 9% said the insurgents, and 44% saw it as a stalemate. Following Bush's speech, 54% of viewers said the United States was winning, 7% the insurgents, and 35% neither side. That represents a statistically significant change even with the small sample size of speech watchers. Most of the shift came from the group who said "neither side" was winning before the speech.

There was a slightly larger shift on the question of whether the United States should "keep a significant number of troops in Iraq until the situation there gets better, even if that takes many years," or "set a timetable for withdrawing troops from Iraq." Bush made it clear he would not set a timetable, and following the speech, 70% of viewers agreed with the idea that the United States should keep its troops there. Before the speech, 58% held that view, for a shift of 12 percentage points.

There was also a slight increase in the percentage of speech watchers who believe Bush has a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq -- 63% after the speech, compared with 56% before.

A flash poll such as this provides an immediate reaction to Bush's speech, measuring opinion that is unfiltered by media reports and commentary.